The polarization sources of strategic surprises in asymmetric warfare

Abstract

This thesis comparatively analyzes the strategic intelligence threat posed by radical non-state actors (i.e., Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah) to state actors (i.e., the United States and Germany). It links different critical radical Islamist narratives and terrorism techniques, including cyberterrorism, to strategic surprise and asymmetric warfare while examining strategic security threats at the geostrategic level and their linkage to the geostrategic terrorism map. The study reviews U.S. intelligence failures and structural gaps, compares them to Germany’s counterterrorism policies under selected strategic criteria, and explores denial and deception techniques impacting the balance of power in international terrorism and kinetic warfare. Thematic and case study analyses address security and intelligence challenges, guided by the relevant research questions, that address and map the factors enabling radical non-state actors such as Al-Qaeda and Hezbollah to become intelligence and strategic threats to state actors. Additionally, non-state actors’ use of advanced terrorism methodologies, the enhancement of the international terrorism battlefield, and the threats posed by severe cyberterrorism offenses to the global community are noted as part of the importance and strategic core of this research.